In his 1983 memoir, Oscar-winning screenwriter William Goldman wrote, “Nobody knows anything.” It was his response to the impossibility of predicting how industry power players will receive a film. “Every time out, it’s a guess, and if you’re lucky, an educated one,” he added. Goldman’s words have become a mantra for awards season prognosticators—and his wisdom has never been truer than this year.
Cinema buffs are scratching their heads over which movies and stars will receive a coveted Oscar nod when the nominees are announced on Jan. 17, 2025. Even the reveal of the Golden Globe and SAG Awards’ picks in December and January, respectively, may not paint a clearer picture.
This time last year, two hugely acclaimed blockbusters were shoo-ins for awards recognition: Greta Gerwig’s “Barbie” and Christopher Nolan’s “Oppenheimer,” which were such critical and box office hits that “Barbenheimer” became the meme of the summer. The latter won a huge pile of hardware, including Oscar wins for best picture, director, lead actor, and supporting actor.
The Subtle Art of Saoirse Ronan The 2024 rollout, however, is what Academy Award winner Yul Brynner’s character in “The King and I” might call “a puzzlement.” As of press time, every one of this year’s 10 highest-grossing films in the domestic box office is part of an existing franchise. And with all due respect to “Twisters” and “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice,” only Denis Villeneuve’s “Dune: Part Two” and Pixar’s “Inside Out 2” are likely to receive nominations.
But the shift in viewing habits and the rise of international co-productions like Yorgos Lanthimos’ “Kinds of Kindness” and Coralie Fargeat’s “The Substance” has changed the awards landscape considerably. What’s more, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences’ efforts to diversify its membership has made some races even harder to predict.
This is especially true in a year when highly anticipated franchise films (“Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga,” “Joker: Folie à Deux”) have vastly underperformed at the box office. Meanwhile, festival darlings like “Anora,” “The Brutalist,” and “Sing Sing,” all intimate projects made on small budgets, are very likely to get noms. (It was only five years ago that Todd Phillips’ “Joker” won the Golden Lion at the Venice International Film Festival—proving that, sometimes, major studios can have their cake and eat it, too.)
Clarence Maclin in “Sing Sing” Credit: Dominic León
A sea change is happening in the directing race in particular. Generally, Oscar voters nominate some upstarts while favoring legacy filmmakers. (At the last ceremony, for example, Academy Award vets Martin Scorsese, Nolan, and Lanthimos competed against first-time nominees Justine Triet and Jonathan Glazer.)
This year, however, the legendary lot includes Francis Ford Coppola, whose expensive, self-funded flop “Megalopolis” scored a deadly D+ on CinemaScore. Though Clint Eastwood has won best director twice over, his “Juror #2” isn’t likely to get much campaign dough from Warner Bros., considering the distributor released the film in less than 50 theaters nationwide. And even though Pedro Almodóvar has always been highly regarded, this year’s “The Room Next Door” received a mixed reception at major film festivals. This could mean a bevy of first-time nominations for filmmakers like Sean Baker (“Anora”), RaMell Ross (“Nickel Boys”), Brady Corbet (“The Brutalist”), and Halina Reijn (“Babygirl”).
‘Nickel Boys’ Filmmaker RaMell Ross Gets Up Close and Personal Another factor that could have an impact: Donald Trump’s recent reelection, which is affecting the national mood—Oscar voters included. Will the news leave AMPAS members feeling reflective? Will they be more interested in films centering on hot-button political issues? Or instead, will they gravitate toward projects that take their mind off turmoil? (Remember how, in the wake of the pandemic, the feel-good streaming indie “CODA” defeated a bunch of heavy hitters in 2022?)
The acting races are even harder to predict—and could include a few historic firsts. Netflix is making a heavy awards push for Karla Sofía Gascón, the star of Jacques Audiard’s “Emilia Pérez.” If nominated, she would be the first openly trans person to receive an acting nod from the Academy. Then there’s ex-convict and first-time screen actor Clarence Maclin, who could get a nod for his searing supporting turn in “Sing Sing.” There’s also a strong possibility that stars of genre projects—such as Demi Moore for horror film “The Substance” and Paul Mescal for action flick “Gladiator II”—could gain recognition.
Then there’s the possibility of another Oscar first: a ceremony in which the best actor and actress winners are the same pair who won in a previous year. That would be Adrien Brody (“The Brutalist”) and Nicole Kidman (“Babygirl”), who both earned their first Academy Awards in 2003 for “The Pianist” and “The Hours,” respectively. But if Brody wins this year, let’s hope he keeps his hands to himself. (Still sorry about that, Halle Berry.)
The stage is set for an Oscar noms announcement that will elicit plenty of gasps and more than a few grumbles. But an easy roster to predict? As a beloved Goldman character once said, “Inconceivable!”
This story originally appeared in the Nov. 14 issue of Backstage Magazine.