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SAG Awards: Film Predictions

SAG Awards: Film Predictions
Photo Source: Universal Pictures

The 19th Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards will be held on Sunday. Doing away with technical categories, the show runs a lean two hours and honors solely acting (and stunt) performances, including an ensemble category for film and TV. Considered a good indicator of who will win Oscar night, the voting body is made up of more than 100,000 SAG members in good standing. With one of the toughest races to call in recent memory, I breakdown the odds on who I think will walk away with the coveted Actor statuette. 

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Alan Arkin, "Argo"
Robert De Niro, "Silver Linings Playbook"
Philip Seymour Hoffman, "The Master"
Tommy Lee Jones, "Lincoln"
Javier Bardem, "Skyfall"

This has been the toughest category to predict. From the beginning, Tommy Lee Jones has been the frontrunner—but he’s failed to score any big wins so far. Phillip Seymour Hoffman won the Critic’s Choice Award, Leonardo DiCaprio took the National Board of Review, and Christoph Waltz won the Golden Globe. But with the absence of the latter two in this category and the lack of enthusiasm for “The Master” (Hoffman’s co-stars Amy Adams and Joaquin Phoenix failed to earn nods), this might be the place for Jones to triumph.

The smart money says: Tommy Lee Jones.

But look out for: Robert DeNiro. A beloved veteran doing his best work in years in an equally beloved film.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Sally Field, "Lincoln"
Anne Hathaway, "Les Misérables"
Helen Hunt, "The Sessions"
Nicole Kidman, "The Paperboy"
Maggie Smith, "Best Exotic Marigold Hotel"

A strange category, as two of the nominees, Nicole Kidman and Maggie Smith, failed to earn Oscar nods. Not that any of it matters—Anne Hathaway has this one all wrapped up.

The smart money says: Anne Hathaway all the way. The only real lock of the night.

But look out for: Nobody. It’s all hers.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Bradley Cooper, "Silver Linings Playbook"
Daniel Day-Lewis, "Lincoln"
John Hawkes, "The Sessions"
Denzel Washington, "Flight"
Hugh Jackman, "Les Miserables"

All along, everyone has assumed the brilliant Daniel Day-Lewis has this one in the bag. But I outlined my case for Hugh Jackman here, and I’m sticking by it. Actors love Jackman. They love “Les Miz." And if there were ever a time for Jackman to start posing a threat, it’s here. Don’t forget, it was last year’s SAG Awards where Jean Dujardin took over frontrunner status from George Clooney.

The smart money says: Daniel Day-Lewis takes home his third SAG Award.

But look out for: Hugh Jackman. I believe it’s closer than you’d think.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Jessica Chastain, "Zero Dark Thirty"
Jennifer Lawrence, "Silver Linings Playbook"
Helen Mirren, "Hitchcock"
Naomi Watts, "The Impossible"
Marion Cotillard, "Rust and Bone"

This is perceived as a two-woman race, with Jennifer Lawrence being the established front-runner and Jessica Chastain closing in on her. I think Chastain still has a shot at the Oscar win, but believe Lawrence will triumph here. It's almost too close to call.

The smart money says: Jennifer Lawrence.

But look out for: Jessica Chastain.

Best Ensemble in a Motion Picture
"The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel"
"Les Misérables"
"Silver Linings Playbook"

Best ensemble does not necessarily correlate to best picture. Just look at last year, when “The Help” beat “The Artist.” However, if “Argo” or “Lincoln” takes this category, the winner is definitely on the way to a best picture win. But those films will have to battle the wildly popular ensembles of “Les Misérables” and “Silver Linings Playbook.” The latter has campaigned tirelessly, and actors love the performances, as indicated by the three individual SAG nominations and four acting Oscar nominations. But actors also love “Les Miz.” And the cast is impossible to argue with, a mix of established talents and breakout newcomers who not only act, but sing. The presence of Russell Crowe puts a dent in their armor, but don’t count them out.

The smart money says: "Silver Linings Playbook."

But look out for: "Les Misérables."

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