The 2023 Oscars slate is anything but certain. However, the Screen Actors Guild Award nominations provided some insight as to which performers voters are favoring this year. On January 11, SAG nominated five films in its best ensemble cast category: “Babylon,” “The Banshees of Inisherin,” “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” “The Fabelmans,” and “Women Talking.”
Of the five nominees, “Women Talking” is the most likely to fare more favorably at SAG—the only Oscars-predicting show with an ensemble award—than the Academy Awards. By the very nature of Sarah Polley’s film, no one actor takes precedence over any other. Jessie Buckley and Claire Foy, who play two of the Mennonite women debating the future of their community following a series of rapes, didn’t receive individual SAG recognition; but nearly every performer in the film gets equal time in the limelight.
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A sure lock, however, are the actors of “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” who have a strong presence in the individual races. In addition to their ensemble nod, the cast of Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert’s film earned four individual SAG nominations: Michelle Yeoh for female actor in a leading role, Ke Huy Quan for male actor in a supporting role, and Jamie Lee Curtis and Stephanie Hsu for female actor in a supporting role. Quan notched his first major win in November, taking home a Gotham Award for the role of Waymond Wang, which he followed up with a Golden Globe win; he’s now the closest to a sure thing in the category.
Yeoh also won on Golden Globes night. For Oscar nominations, she will most likely be joined by fellow Globe nominees Cate Blanchett (Todd Field’s “Tár”), Michelle Williams (“The Fabelmans”), and Viola Davis (“The Woman King”), as well as Danielle Deadwyler, who won a Gotham Award for her work in Chinonye Chukwu’s “Till.” A few late-in-the-game entries could also be Margot Robbie for Damien Chazelle’s “Babylon”—a film that has been divisive among critics but did score that ensemble SAG nomination—and Ana de Armas for “Blonde,” another controversial performance that crept into the lead actress SAG category.
How Ana de Armas Used Her Own Insecurities to Play Marilyn Monroe There’s more clarity in the best actor race, however. Brendan Fraser has received a lot of early love for his performance in Darren Aronofsky’s “The Whale,” including a Critics Choice win and Golden Globe nomination. (The actor did not attend the Jan. 10 ceremony in protest, alleging that he was groped by a former president of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association.) Also in competition are critical favorite Colin Farrell for Martin McDonagh’s “The Banshees of Inisherin”), as well as Austin Butler for Baz Luhrmann’s “Elvis”—in addition to being SAG-nominated, the two stars took home Golden Globes for best actor in a comedy and best actor in a drama, respectively.
Some names circling the best actor Oscar race are Hugh Jackman (Florian Zeller’s “The Son”), Bill Nighy (Oliver Hermanus’ “Living”), and Jeremy Pope (Elegance Bratton’s “The Inspection”). Tom Cruise, whose movie-star charisma made Joseph Kosinski’s “Top Gun: Maverick” one of the biggest successes of the year, could be a dark horse.
This story originally appeared in the Dec. 29 issue of Backstage Magazine.