If the “Wicked” SAG Award nominations sweep is anything to go by, Kermit the Frog may have it wrong: It’s actually pretty easy being green. To date, Jon M. Chu’s musical blockbuster has earned almost $460 million domestically. And it seems awards voters are just as high on the broom about the film as moviegoers—it’s netted 11 Critics’ Choice nominations and a Golden Globe win for cinematic and box office achievement.
“Wicked” also earned five SAG nods—the most of any movie this year: Cynthia Erivo for lead female actor; Ariana Grande and Jonathan Bailey for their supporting turns; and outstanding cast and stunt ensemble. Since many SAG-AFTRA members come from theater backgrounds, they might want to see a musical ensemble win—especially considering it’s been more than two decades since a tuner took the top prize (2002’s “Chicago”). Chances are good that “Wicked” will also give ’em the old razzle-dazzle.
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But overall, this year’s picks prove that quality isn’t always about size. Hollywood royalty like Nicole Kidman (“Babygirl”), Angelina Jolie (“Maria”), and Denzel Washington (“Gladiator II”) were passed over in the film categories in favor of turns from actors who aren’t yet household names: Mikey Madison (“Anora”), Karla Sofía Gascón (“Emilia Pérez”), Monica Barbaro (“A Complete Unknown”), and Danielle Deadwyler (“The Piano Lesson”). Even A-list nominees earned nods for smaller films: Daniel Craig for “Queer,” Zoe Saldana for “Emilia Pérez,” and Demi Moore for “The Substance.”
Danielle Deadwyler in “The Piano Lesson” Courtesy Netflix
This could also be a watershed year for LGBTQ+ performers in leading roles. If Colman Domingo (“Sing Sing”) and either Gascón (the first transgender person to get a SAG nod) or Erivo win, it would mark the first time two queer actors swept the leading categories. And if Domingo and Erivo both come out on top, it would be the first time a pair of queer Black actors won for their leading performances.
Another major takeaway from this year’s list? Awards experts might be underestimating certain films’ chances at Academy attention. (Oscar nominations haven’t yet been announced as of press time.) “The Last Showgirl” earned nods for both Pamela Anderson and Jamie Lee Curtis—the latter’s performance was barely talked about before now. Deadwyler, who joins Curtis in the supporting category, made good on early buzz for “The Piano Lesson”—though Malcolm Washington’s film failed to generate the same level of hubbub that surrounded other August Wilson adaptations like “Fences” (2016) and “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” (2020).
Off the Cuff With Kieran Culkin Then there’s Jeremy Strong’s supporting nod for “The Apprentice,” which puts him head-to-head with “A Real Pain” favorite Kieran Culkin. The “Succession” costars previously competed at last year’s Emmys and this year’s Golden Globes, with Culkin coming out on top both times. Could a third faceoff—and perhaps a fourth at the Oscars—be the charm for Strong?
On the other hand, prognosticators might be overestimating some competitors. A host of acclaimed 2024 films—“Challengers,” “Dune: Part Two,” “Hard Truths,” and “Nickel Boys”—were all snubbed by SAG voters. On the individual side, Felicity Jones and Guy Pearce were both passed over for their supporting turns in “The Brutalist” despite rave reviews from critics and audiences alike. And though Sebastian Stan (“A Different Man,” “The Apprentice”) and Fernanda Torres (“I’m Still Here”) both won Golden Globes this year, they were passed over by SAG.
Hiroyuki Sanada on “Shōgun” Credit: Katie Yu/FX
In the TV categories, Jessica Lange (“The Great Lillian Hall”) was notably absent from the list, as were Steve Martin and Selena Gomez (“Only Murders in the Building”), and any of the performers from “House of the Dragon”—though the series did earn a stunt ensemble nod.
Otherwise, the small-screen nominees are largely in line with the most recent Emmy and Golden Globe picks. Expect many of those ceremonies’ winners—Anna Sawai, Hiroyuki Sanada, and Tadanobu Asano (“Shōgun”), Jean Smart (“Hacks”), Colin Farrell (“The Penguin”), and Jodie Foster (“True Detective: Night Country”)—to take home SAG gold, too. But there could be a few surprise champs from fan favorites like “Bridgerton,” “Nobody Wants This,” and “The Diplomat.”
Despite notable omissions in the film categories, this remains a highly competitive race among a group of stellar, surprising performers. But it doesn’t take a wizard to see that SAG voters are leaning toward one very pop-uu-uu-lar! movie in particular.
This story originally appeared in the Jan. 23 issue of Backstage Magazine.