Picture this: You’re at a party celebrating Hollywood’s biggest night, a flute of prosecco in one hand and a slice of pizza in the other. Someone asks for your opinion on the best actress race. You panic, mumble something about “Madame Web,” and fill your mouth with pepperoni.
Don’t let this happen to you. We’re here to help.
ABC is airing the 97th Academy Awards on March 2 at 7 p.m. ET. Once the commercials start and the watch party gets chatty, here’s some knowledge to drop about this year’s acting races.
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Best supporting actor
This category is the best place to start if you want to build confidence. Kieran Culkin’s performance in “A Real Pain” is the closest to a sure thing, considering he’s won the category at many pre-Oscar ceremonies.
And here’s a bit of trivia to have on hand: Culkin is on track to defeat his “Succession” costar Jeremy Strong, who’s nominated for “The Apprentice.”
Best actor
The other races are more fluid. In the lead actor showdown, many experts like Golden Globe winner Adrien Brody’s odds for his performance in “The Brutalist,” but you can't ignore that Timothée Chalamet won the SAG Award. Colman Domingo (“Sing Sing”) has enjoyed a swell of critical acclaim, too, and he could benefit from a rare back-to-back nod in the category. (He was nominated for “Rustin” last year.)
Best actress
Mikey Madison (“Anora”) was the early frontrunner, having earned prizes from critics’ organizations all season long. But don’t sleep on Demi Moore (“The Substance”), who beat out Madison at the Golden Globes (and gave a well-received acceptance speech) and the SAG Awards. Also, keep an eye on Fernanda Torres (“I’m Still Here”), who pulled off a best drama actress upset at the Globes.
Demi Moore: A Matter of Substance This category also includes the clearest “never gonna happen” candidate: “Emilia Pérez” star Karla Sofía Gascón, whose chances plummeted after several controversial social media posts surfaced. Torres has also faced backlash for appearing in blackface in a comedy sketch that aired on Brazilian TV 17 years ago. While both actors have issued apologies, the discourse around Gascón’s response has been much more contentious.
Best supporting actress
This race is likely down to Zoe Saldaña (“Emilia Pérez”) and Ariana Grande (“Wicked”), but it's Saldaña who already took home trophies at the Golden Globes, BAFTAs, and SAG.
After you’ve wowed your fellow partygoers with your prognostications, throw in a little analysis; everyone loves a fun fact.
If Gascón comes out on top, she’ll be the first openly transgender acting winner in Oscar history. Brody, now 51, broke the record for youngest best actor recipient when he nabbed the statuette for “The Pianist” in 2003 at the age of 29. If Chalamet, who’s currently 29, wins the category, he’ll beat Brody’s record by about seven months.
RELATED: How Timothée Chalamet Mastered the Harmonica for ‘A Complete Unknown’
Supporting nominee Yura Borisov (“Anora”) is the first Russian actor to get an Oscar nod in almost 50 years. Want to explain how he broke that drought? Bring up the scene toward the end of the film in which his henchman, Igor, shares a charmingly combative conversation while watching TV with Madison’s Ani. It’s a revealing character moment that sparks with chemistry.
Fernanda Montenegro in “I'm Still Here” Credit: Adrian Teijido/Sony Pictures Classics
Torres is only the second Brazilian to be nominated in an acting category. The first was her mother, Fernanda Montenegro, who earned a nod in 1999. They’re both in “I’m Still Here”; Montenegro plays the older version of her daughter’s character.
If Sebastian Stan nabs best actor for his turn as Donald Trump in “The Apprentice,” he’ll be the first person to win for playing a sitting president.
And as awards buffs might already know, an Oscar win would cinch “Wicked” star Cynthia Erivo’s EGOT status. (Oz forbid anyone at your party tries to downplay her odds if they caught her goosebump-inducing performance of “Defying Gravity.”)
Most of this year’s acting hopefuls are first-time nominees, and each would offer something special to the winner’s circle. Here’s how to make a case for them from your friend’s couch.
For some, it’s about damn time.
Moore and best supporting actor nominee Guy Pearce (“The Brutalist”), both industry veterans with rich bodies of work, are overdue for a win. Moore ruled the ’90s in zeitgeisty films like “Ghost” and “A Few Good Men,” and Pearce is beloved for his turns in enduring classics like “L.A. Confidential” and “The Adventures of Priscilla, Queen of the Desert.”
If we’re talking about giving performers belated flowers, one name looms largest: Isabella Rossellini (“Conclave”). As the daughter of Ingrid Bergman and director Roberto Rossellini, she would lend dynastic glamour to the supporting actress pantheon. Her career spans nearly half a century and includes collaborations with everyone from David Lynch to Tina Fey.
Others would change the game.
Saldaña, the queen of sci-fi blockbusters, could rocket to a new level of prestige. Her credits boggle the mind, with prominent roles in the “Avatar,” “Guardians of the Galaxy,” and “Star Trek” franchises. However, the actor’s “Emilia Pérez” campaign marks her first serious bid for a major award.
A victory for Grande would be seismic. There’s a reason the pop icon’s screwball performance of “Popular” went viral: Whether she’s growling “right” or twirling down a hallway, “Wicked” is the perfect showcase for her Hollywood chops. But is society ready for a former Nickelodeon child star to become an Oscar winner?
With mostly minor TV work on her résumé, Monica Barbaro (“A Complete Unknown”) would also be a thrilling upset. A win for her tough-talking turn as folk queen Joan Baez would be the stuff of Oscar-night fairy tales.
If the discussion turns to the topic of whether performances in non-dramatic movies deserve more recognition, here’s what to point out beyond the usual.
Sci-fi, horror, and superheroes
It’s rare to see these more fantastical genres make it to the acting categories. There are exceptions, however—look at the juggernaut sweep of “Everything Everywhere All at Once.” Landing a nomination usually takes a show-stopping performance from a marquee name—think Sandra Bullock in “Gravity” or Angela Bassett in “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever.” That helps explain why Moore made the cut for her turn in Coralie Fargeat’s gruesome body-horror flick “The Substance.”
Moore was the exception this year, however. Best picture nominee “Dune: Part Two” didn’t receive any acting recognition, nor did “Nosferatu,” “A Different Man,” or “Alien: Romulus”—though they all got nods in the technical categories.
Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande in “Wicked” Courtesy Universal Pictures
Musicals
The ladies of “Wicked” and “Emilia Pérez” made a strong showing this year—as did the actors in “A Complete Unknown,” which could arguably be categorized as a musical. Historically, the Academy has no problem recognizing a little toe-tapping and belting. Barbra Streisand’s win for “Funny Girl” and Liza Minnelli’s for “Cabaret” are two of the most iconic.
Comedy
There’s an argument to be made that Madison and Borisov’s nods for “Anora” represent a coup for the rom-com genre (that final scene notwithstanding). The Academy is notorious for ignoring straight-up comedic performances, however. We’ve only seen a handful of nods, such as Maria Bakalova for “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm” and Melissa McCarthy for “Bridesmaids.”
When a presenter reads out the nominees, feel free to bring up any actors who were robbed in the past. (Make sure to say “robbed” with your full chest.)
Previous nominees
For some of this year’s contenders, the Oscar stage is familiar territory. For example, best supporting actress hopeful Felicity Jones (“The Brutalist”) lost out in the lead category more than a decade ago for “The Theory of Everything.”
Best actor nominee Ralph Fiennes (“Conclave”) lost previous Oscar bids for “Schindler’s List” and “The English Patient.” Gold has also slipped away from supporting contender Edward Norton (“A Complete Unknown”) three times over—for “Primal Fear,” “American History X,” and “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance).”
If you want to look like a true awards buff, bring up performers who were ignored by the Academy for roles that definitely deserved nods. For example, can you believe Fiennes wasn’t nominated for his unforgettable, bittersweet turn in “The Grand Budapest Hotel”? And that’s not even to mention his Voldemort days in the “Harry Potter” movies. Norton didn’t get a nod for “Fight Club,” which is arguably his most beloved film. And believe it or not, Rossellini wasn’t recognized for “Blue Velvet.”
Who got overlooked this year?
For another chance to stir the pot, turn to this year’s most glaring omissions: Pamela Anderson (“The Last Showgirl”) and Marianne Jean-Baptiste (“Hard Truths”), who were tipped for best actress right down to the wire. The former has an all-time comeback narrative, plus a SAG nod. The latter gave one of the most stunning performances of the year in her reunion with Mike Leigh, who previously directed her in “Secrets & Lies.”
Daniel Craig, meanwhile, was left out of the lead actor race for his performance in “Queer,” even though the erstwhile James Bond scored a SAG nomination for his sweaty, go-for-broke turn as a writer grasping for connection in 1950s Mexico City.
Then there are those who could easily have squeaked into the supporting categories. In “The Substance,” Margaret Qualley acted as a crucial foil for Moore’s protagonist. Danielle Deadwyler (“The Piano Lesson”) has turned in a streak of great performances over the past few years, most notably in 2022’s “Till”; but so far, she’s escaped the Academy’s notice. In “Sing Sing,” ex-con Clarence Maclin translated his own story into the role of a lifetime, which probably helped him nab a best adapted screenplay nod. And two-time Oscar winner Denzel Washington elevated blockbuster sequel “Gladiator II” on the strength of pure charisma alone.
SAG supporting nominees Jonathan Bailey (“Wicked”) and Jamie Lee Curtis (“The Last Showgirl”) also missed the Oscar boat. Bailey would have made Fred Astaire proud with his song-and-dance chops, and Curtis is an industry darling with goodwill to spare—especially after her 2023 win for “Everything Everywhere All at Once.”
Despite critical acclaim, Ethan Herisse and Brandon Wilson (“Nickel Boys”) made few awards lists. They might be relative newcomers, but RaMell Ross’ visionary drama, which is up for best picture, hinges on the two actors’ nuanced work.
Thinking outside the box, Kiernan Shipka delivered the most chilling movie monologue of the year (really!) in “Longlegs.” And Lupita Nyong’o and Joseph Quinn turned in gripping, grounded performances in creature feature “A Quiet Place: Day One.”
The Academy also overlooked 95-year-old June Squibb, who scored several accolades for her turn in the action-packed “Thelma.” But in our opinion, there can never be enough.
This story originally appeared in the Feb. 20 issue of Backstage Magazine.
